Thanks All. I found the “Can I Mash It” calculator, which says <13 lb grain bill would work at 1.25 qt/gal: http://rackers.org/calcs.shtml/
I’m still a newbie and my procedure may be partially to blame, although I think it has more to do with temp monitoring than anything else. Last time I used 180 deg. strike water and let the cooler rest with the lid on for a while (didn’t write down how long, but pretty sure it was 25-30 minutes). I added the grain at 165 and the temp settled in at 153. My temp loss the first 30 minutes was as follows:
60 min: 153
55 min: 153
50 min: 152.2
45 min: 151.3
40 min: 150.1
35 min: 148.9
30 min: 147.7
My theory is that my wire probe is curling and ending up in the thin layer of water on top of the grain bed, rather than penetrating into the grain bed. I cannot tell where it ends up inside the closed container. I will solve this in my next batch by affixing it to a stainless steel rod and inserting through a tiny hold I’ve drilled in my cooler lid. This will give me confidence I’ve achieved proper penetration of the grain bed.
Having said that, I’ve picked up a 5 gal cooler anyway. Small investment. The hardware is the expensive part.