Hitting Gravity with All Grain

I am thinking about trying all grain but one concept I can’t get my head around. How do you know if you are going to be able to hit your desired OG? Do you take a gravity reading, adjust for temp and then extrapolate that into gravity for 5 gallon? My thoughts were that if the efficiency was not good I could add some extract to bring up the gravity to the desired level.

One other question. I have created my own house ales with extract recipes. What base malt would I use if I am currently using NB’s gold LME?

It’s all trial and error. Everyone’s system is just a little different.

But with a recipe program, starting at either 65% or 70% you can get darn close. Easiest would be to have a refractometer. Then you only need a small sample to cool and check the gravity.

Within 3-4 brews you should be getting a consistent sugar extraction with the grains and will know how much you need to get the OG you want.

I have found that my final gravities are lower than expected, so sometimes the temperature of your mash can lead to more fermentable wort, despite tweaking for a correct OG. Just something else to keep in mind. But don’t sweat it too much. I think most beers are better going all grain, but there is definitely a place for extract, too - I do cream ales and simple stouts as extract beers these days for ease and speed when time doesn’t allow for an all grain day.