Cherry Melomel fermentation time?

Hey, I was looking for a little help with my first attempt at home brewing. I am making a cherry melomel, probably sparkling in the end. I’ll list what Ive done with my question at the end.

7/27/2015

I added all the following ingredients to my 6 1/2 fermentation bucket.

3 gallons Ice Mountain Spring Water
1/2 gallon Pulp Free Simple Orange juice
6 32 oz Great Lakes Clover Golden Honey
1 gallon plastic bag completely full of stemmed/pitted fresh cherries
1 tspn Pectic Enzyme
2 crushed Campden Tablets
1 tspn Wine Tannin
3 tspn Acid Blend
3 tspn Yeast Nutrient

7/28/2015

Added 1 pack D-47 Lalvin Yeast

7/29-7/30

Was bubbling strongly. After talking to some friends who brew, they said my house might be too warm. I do not have AC and the weather was between 85-90. Doing a little bit of research, concluded they were right. So I moved the fermentation bucket to the basement.

7/31-8/1

Bubbling tapered off. The temperature had also dropped to the 65s at night, so my basement was cooler. (I have no thermometer) Everything I read indicated that it was too soon to stop bubbling and the temperature drop may have stopped fermentation, so I moved the bucket back upstairs on the 1st.

So here is my question, could the primary fermentation have completed already? After nearly 24 hours the activity has dropped off even more.

I am very reluctant to crack the bucket open just yet. And there is still visibly gas pressure in the airlock (All the water is pushed to one side instead of being on both sides) so I rather doubt the bucket is leaking. If it is, its a very minor one.

I was planing on buying a hydrometer and the 5 gallon carboy closer to my planed time to rack, sometime between the 28th of August and the 4th of September.